The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has been a test of the West’s resolve and its strategic acumen in supporting a nation under siege. Andriy Zagorodnyuk, Ukraine’s former defense minister, and Eliot Cohen, a strategist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, have offered a critical view of the Western approach in a recent op-ed. They argue that the West has yet to clearly articulate an endgame for this war, instead treating support for Kiev as an end in itself, divorced from a coherent strategy for bringing the war to a close.
Three years into the conflict, Zagorodnyuk and Cohen have called for the West to support Kiev’s war aims, including the complete removal of Russian forces from Ukrainian territory, war crimes tribunals for Russian officials, and reparations from Moscow. They also urge the provision of long-term security arrangements. Put differently, the West must commit itself to nothing short of Russia’s total and unconditional battlefield defeat. This robust approach would demand a significant scaling-up of current Western engagement, including more conscription, strikes on Russian infrastructure, counter-offensives, and a continuation of the sanctions regime that has hitherto failed to deter Russian aggression.
Ukraine’s successes, such as substantial damages inflicted upon Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, are acknowledged. However, it’s argued that these naval victories are unlikely to be convertible into substantial gains on land where the conflict continues. Adding to the complexity is Russia’s apparent military resilience, as NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, Christopher Cavoli, observed that Russia’s military capabilities have grown since the war’s onset.
The West is much richer than Russia, but the past three years have shown that this wealth gap cannot easily or quickly translate into the concrete military capabilities Ukraine needs to defeat Russian forces on the battlefield. The West cannot summon the necessary manpower reserves to continue waging this war for many years without intervening directly.
Despite its vast potential wealth, the United States currently lacks the production needed to maintain the use of Ukrainian shells in the short to medium term, replenish its own depleted stockpiles, and maintain commitments to other partners in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific. Developing a defense industrial base strong enough to take on all of these tasks could take years, and Kiev does not have that time.
Relevant articles:
– The New Theory of Ukrainian Victory Is the Same as the Old , The American Conservative, 05/26/2024
– Russia Victory Day parade: Only one tank on display as Vladimir Putin says country is going through ‘difficult period’, Yahoo Singapore News, 05/26/2024
– Memory Versus History: Russia’s War on Ukraine, RKK ICDS, 05/25/2024
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