Iran’s strategic use of proxy forces in October, 2023 has come under renewed scrutiny. At the heart of Tehran’s regional power play is its calculated effort to expand influence in Syria without engaging directly in conflict with the United States or Israel. This approach leverages a network of trained foreign and local militias, embedding Syria as a crucial component of Iran’s broader ‘axis of resistance.’
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), particularly its Quds Force, has historically been the nexus of Iran’s foreign legion, knitting together groups from Shiite-majority countries and beyond. Hezbollah and the Houthis epitomize Iran’s armed partners, bolstering its strategic depth across the Middle East. The proliferation of these groups, experts argue, aims to promote Iranian hegemony and thwart Western influence.
The recent conflict escalation between Israel and Hamas on October 7, 2023, which was followed by a multitude of proxy-initiated assaults, underscores Iran’s nuanced strategy. Esmail Qaani, the IRGC Quds Force commander, has reportedly orchestrated over 40 missile and drone strikes against U.S. forces in Syria and Iraq from his Syrian base of operations. These actions, while testing U.S. red lines, also signal Tehran’s commitment to controlling the path of escalation.
In October, a key moment came when Qaani established a new “joint operation room” in southern Syria near the Golan Heights. This move aligns with Tehran’s effort to harness the Hamas attacks as the onset of a protracted confrontation with Israel. The high-ranking Iranian commanders have stressed, “the Palestinian operation is the beginning of the Resistance Axis’ movement to destroy Israel.”
This long war doctrine underpins Iran’s extensive investment in radicalizing proxy forces like the Afghan Fatemiyoun and Pakistani Zainabiyoun militias. The training and indoctrination program, which emphasizes the destruction of Israel as a prelude to the Mahdist messianic return, has only intensified the stakes.
Yet, Tehran’s role in Syria is not without setbacks. Israel’s aggressive air campaign targeting IRGC assets has demonstrated the risks associated with Tehran’s strategy. Despite these risks, Iran appears resolute in consolidating its positions in Syria and expanding the capabilities of its proxies.
As Tehran recalibrates its tactics in response to the retaliatory attacks, the strategic importance of Syria in Iran’s regional equation remains undiminished. The Syrian front represents a potentially less risky option for exerting pressure on Israel and the U.S., compared to direct engagement from Lebanon via Hezbollah.
Relevant articles:
– Iran’s Regional Armed Network, cfr.org
– Iran’s Proxies in Syria Move Toward Escalation With Israel, Foreign Policy, Nov 10, 2023
– The path forward on Iran and its proxy forces, Brookings, 5 days ago
– How Iran uses proxy forces across the region to strike Israel and US, The Guardian, Nov 1, 2023